Tripoli SC 1–2 Al Ahli Nabatiya: Result & Stats

Tripoli SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al Ahli Nabatiya

3/24/2024

Premier League · Relegation Round - 7Tripoli International Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tripoli SC39%

×Draw31%

Al Ahli Nabatiya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tripoli SCExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Nabatiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.92

Tripoli SC

1.08

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.92

Tripoli SC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

0.85

creates per match

0.54

1.29

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Tripoli SC

0.85

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.54

allows per match

Tripoli SC

1.29

Al Ahli Nabatiya

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Al Ahli Nabatiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw

70%

Tripoli SC or Al Ahli Nabatiya

69%

Draw or Al Ahli Nabatiya

61%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

16%

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

66%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

29%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

10%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals

60%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals

23%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

56%

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.54 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tripoli SC scores more

39%

level

31%

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more

30%

Tripoli SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tripoli SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff