Trinidad and Tobago W 1–1 Panama W: Result & Stats

Trinidad and Tobago W

FT

1 – 1

Panama W

10/25/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Ato Boldon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trinidad and Tobago W26%

×Draw26%

Panama W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trinidad and Tobago WExpected goals in this matchPanama W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.52

Trinidad and Tobago W

1.05

Panama W

1.52

Panama W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

0.40

creates per match

1.25

1.80

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Trinidad and Tobago W

0.40

Panama W

1.25

allows per match

Trinidad and Tobago W

1.80

Panama W

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trinidad and Tobago W+0.00on par

Panama W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trinidad and Tobago W ↓

Panama W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Trinidad and Tobago W or draw

52%

Trinidad and Tobago W or Panama W

74%

Draw or Panama W

74%

Winning margin

Trinidad and Tobago W wins by 2+

10%

Panama W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Trinidad and Tobago W 1+ goals

65%

Trinidad and Tobago W 2+ goals

28%

Trinidad and Tobago W 3+ goals

9%

Panama W 1+ goals

78%

Panama W 2+ goals

45%

Panama W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Trinidad and Tobago W (draw refunded)

35%

Panama W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trinidad and Tobago W at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Panama W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trinidad and Tobago W attack 0.40 + Panama W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Panama W attack 1.25 + Trinidad and Tobago W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trinidad and Tobago W scores more

26%

level

26%

Panama W scores more

48%

Panama W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Panama W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff