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Trinidad and Tobago W vs Aruba W — Friendlies Women 2026

Trinidad and Tobago W
Trinidad and Tobago W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aruba W
Aruba W
S. Verhoeve 38'
6/2/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Football Federation Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trinidad and Tobago W15%
×Draw20%
Aruba W65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trinidad and Tobago W
0.90
Aruba W
2.10

Aruba W creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Trinidad and Tobago W
0.40
Aruba W
2.40

allows per match

Trinidad and Tobago W
1.80
Aruba W
1.40

finishing

Trinidad and Tobago W+0.00on par
Aruba W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trinidad and Tobago W ↓

Aruba W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Trinidad and Tobago W or draw
35%
Trinidad and Tobago W or Aruba W
80%
Draw or Aruba W
85%

Winning margin

Trinidad and Tobago W wins by 2+
5%
Aruba W wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Trinidad and Tobago W 1+ goals
59%
Trinidad and Tobago W 2+ goals
23%
Trinidad and Tobago W 3+ goals
6%
Aruba W 1+ goals
88%
Aruba W 2+ goals
62%
Aruba W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Trinidad and Tobago W (draw refunded)
19%
Aruba W (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trinidad and Tobago W at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Aruba W away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trinidad and Tobago W attack 0.40 + Aruba W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Aruba W attack 2.40 + Trinidad and Tobago W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Trinidad and Tobago W scores more
15%
level
20%
Aruba W scores more
65%

Aruba W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Aruba W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
S. Verhoeve
76'
77'
80'
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trinidad and Tobago W vs Aruba W

Aruba W beat Trinidad and Tobago W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on June 2, 2024.

Goals: S. Verhoeve (38').

The match was played at Football Federation Training Ground in Willemstad.