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Třinec vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Třinec
Třinec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
5/9/20253. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadion Rudolfa Labaje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Třinec66%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Otrokovice15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec
2.33
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.02

Třinec creates 128% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 68 away

creates per match

Třinec
2.66
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Třinec
0.66
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Třinec+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Třinec or draw
85%
Třinec or Viktoria Otrokovice
81%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
34%

Winning margin

Třinec wins by 2+
43%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Třinec 1+ goals
90%
Třinec 2+ goals
67%
Třinec 3+ goals
41%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
64%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
27%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Třinec (draw refunded)
81%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec attack 2.66 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.33

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Třinec defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Třinec scores more
66%
level
19%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
15%

Třinec at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Třinec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Třinec vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Třinec beat Viktoria Otrokovice 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rudolfa Labaje in Třinec.