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Třinec vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Třinec
Třinec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
F. Matula 72' (OG)
M. Vlachovsky 55'
V. Brak 1'
A. Fila 25'
9/2/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 5Stadion Rudolfa Labaje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Třinec60%
×Draw22%
Slovan Rosice19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec
1.96
Slovan Rosice
1.00

Třinec creates 96% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 64 away

creates per match

Třinec
2.69
Slovan Rosice
1.31

allows per match

Třinec
0.69
Slovan Rosice
1.22

finishing

Třinec+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Třinec or draw
81%
Třinec or Slovan Rosice
78%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
40%

Winning margin

Třinec wins by 2+
36%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Třinec 1+ goals
86%
Třinec 2+ goals
58%
Třinec 3+ goals
31%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
63%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
26%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Třinec (draw refunded)
76%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec attack 2.69 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.96

Slovan Rosice attack 1.31 + Třinec defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Třinec scores more
60%
level
22%
Slovan Rosice scores more
19%

Třinec at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Třinec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
V. Brak
17'
F. Maksic
25'
A. Fila
26'
N. Brodziansky
28'
M. Vlachovsky
35'
K. Kulik
46'
O. Machuca← V. Vucicevic
46'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
46'
F. Maksic← D. Stranak
46'
L. Holik← R. Dedic
46'
M. Samiec← N. Brodziansky
55'
M. Vlachovsky
59'
R. Dedic
61'
P. Goj← P. Goj
61'
D. Kotasek← D. Kotasek
62'
T. Barkov← T. Barkov
72'
F. MatulaOwn goal
72'
R. Buchta
78'
M. Kozel← M. Kozel
83'
M. Novotny← M. Novotny

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Třinec vs Slovan Rosice

Třinec beat Slovan Rosice 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 2, 2023.

Goals: V. Brak (1'), A. Fila (25'), M. Vlachovsky (55'), F. Matula (72' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Rudolfa Labaje in Třinec.