Třinec II 1–5 Karviná II: Result & Stats

Třinec II

FT

1 – 5

Karviná II

10/4/2020

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 9Borek Fotbalove Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II23%

×Draw19%

Karviná II58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Třinec IIExpected goals in this matchKarviná II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.49

Třinec II

1.54

Karviná II

2.49

Karviná II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

1.60

creates per match

2.37

2.60

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Třinec II

1.60

Karviná II

2.37

allows per match

Třinec II

2.60

Karviná II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par

Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Karviná II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw

42%

Třinec II or Karviná II

81%

Draw or Karviná II

77%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+

10%

Karviná II wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals

79%

Třinec II 2+ goals

45%

Třinec II 3+ goals

20%

Karviná II 1+ goals

92%

Karviná II 2+ goals

71%

Karviná II 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)

29%

Karviná II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Karviná II away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Karviná II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Karviná II attack 2.37 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Třinec II scores more

23%

level

19%

Karviná II scores more

58%

Karviná II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff