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Třinec II vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Třinec II
Třinec II
CANC
09:30
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
3/14/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 11Borek Fotbalove Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II66%
×Draw16%
Heřmanice Slezská18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec II
3.00
Heřmanice Slezská
1.54

Třinec II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Třinec II
1.60
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Třinec II
2.60
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw
82%
Třinec II or Heřmanice Slezská
84%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
34%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+
46%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals
95%
Třinec II 2+ goals
79%
Třinec II 3+ goals
56%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
79%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
45%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)
79%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.00

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Třinec II scores more
66%
level
16%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
18%

Třinec II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Třinec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Třinec II host Heřmanice Slezská

March 14, 2021: Třinec II take on Heřmanice Slezská in 4. liga - Divizie F. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Třinec II host Heřmanice Slezská at Borek Fotbalove Hřiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.