Třinec II 4–1 Beskyd Frenštát: Result & Stats

Třinec II

FT

4 – 1

Beskyd Frenštát

9/20/2020

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Stadion Rudolfa Labaje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II41%

×Draw21%

Beskyd Frenštát38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Třinec IIExpected goals in this matchBeskyd Frenštát

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.92

Třinec II

1.99

Beskyd Frenštát

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 60 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

2.60

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Třinec II

1.60

Beskyd Frenštát

1.23

allows per match

Třinec II

2.60

Beskyd Frenštát

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw

62%

Třinec II or Beskyd Frenštát

79%

Draw or Beskyd Frenštát

59%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+

22%

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals

86%

Třinec II 2+ goals

59%

Třinec II 3+ goals

32%

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

85%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

57%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)

52%

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.99

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Třinec II scores more

41%

level

21%

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

38%

Třinec II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Třinec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff