Trindade U20 1–1 Vila Nova U20: Result & Stats

Trindade U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vila Nova U20

6/13/2024

Goiano U20 · FinalsEstádio Abrão Manoel da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Trindade U2039%

×Draw25%

Vila Nova U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trindade U20Expected goals in this matchVila Nova U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.43

Trindade U20

1.50

Vila Nova U20

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

1.63

creates per match

1.86

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Trindade U20

1.63

Vila Nova U20

1.86

allows per match

Trindade U20

1.00

Vila Nova U20

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trindade U20+0.00on par

Vila Nova U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trindade U20 ↓

Vila Nova U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Trindade U20 or draw

64%

Trindade U20 or Vila Nova U20

75%

Draw or Vila Nova U20

61%

Winning margin

Trindade U20 wins by 2+

19%

Vila Nova U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Trindade U20 1+ goals

78%

Trindade U20 2+ goals

44%

Trindade U20 3+ goals

19%

Vila Nova U20 1+ goals

76%

Vila Nova U20 2+ goals

42%

Vila Nova U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Trindade U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Vila Nova U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trindade U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Vila Nova U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trindade U20 attack 1.63 + Vila Nova U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vila Nova U20 attack 1.86 + Trindade U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trindade U20 scores more

39%

level

25%

Vila Nova U20 scores more

36%

Trindade U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trindade U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff