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Trindade U20 vs Goianesia U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Trindade U20
Trindade U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Goianesia U20
Goianesia U20
3/22/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Abrão Manoel da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trindade U2070%
×Draw19%
Goianesia U2011%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trindade U20
2.06
Goianesia U20
0.67

Trindade U20 creates 207% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

creates per match

Trindade U20
1.63
Goianesia U20
0.33

allows per match

Trindade U20
1.00
Goianesia U20
2.50

finishing

Trindade U20+0.00on par
Goianesia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trindade U20 ↓

Goianesia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trindade U20 or draw
89%
Trindade U20 or Goianesia U20
81%
Draw or Goianesia U20
30%

Winning margin

Trindade U20 wins by 2+
44%
Goianesia U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Trindade U20 1+ goals
87%
Trindade U20 2+ goals
61%
Trindade U20 3+ goals
34%
Goianesia U20 1+ goals
49%
Goianesia U20 2+ goals
15%
Goianesia U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Trindade U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trindade U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Goianesia U20 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trindade U20 attack 1.63 + Goianesia U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Goianesia U20 attack 0.33 + Trindade U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Trindade U20 scores more
70%
level
19%
Goianesia U20 scores more
11%

Trindade U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Trindade U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trindade U20 vs Goianesia U20

Trindade U20 beat Goianesia U20 4-0 in Goiano U20 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Abrão Manoel da Costa in Trindade, Goiás.