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Trindade U20 vs Aparecida EC U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Trindade U20
Trindade U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aparecida EC U20
Aparecida EC U20
4/26/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 9Parque Lara Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trindade U2055%
×Draw24%
Aparecida EC U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trindade U20
1.67
Aparecida EC U20
0.93

Trindade U20 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Trindade U20
1.63
Aparecida EC U20
0.86

allows per match

Trindade U20
1.00
Aparecida EC U20
1.71

finishing

Trindade U20+0.00on par
Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trindade U20 ↓

Aparecida EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trindade U20 or draw
79%
Trindade U20 or Aparecida EC U20
76%
Draw or Aparecida EC U20
45%

Winning margin

Trindade U20 wins by 2+
30%
Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Trindade U20 1+ goals
81%
Trindade U20 2+ goals
50%
Trindade U20 3+ goals
23%
Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals
61%
Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals
24%
Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trindade U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trindade U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Aparecida EC U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trindade U20 attack 1.63 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Aparecida EC U20 attack 0.86 + Trindade U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Trindade U20 scores more
55%
level
24%
Aparecida EC U20 scores more
21%

Trindade U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Trindade U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Trindade U20 0–1 Aparecida EC U20

Aparecida EC U20 beat Trindade U20 1-0 in Goiano U20 on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Lara Guimarães in Trindade, Goiás.