Triglav 1–0 Ilirija: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Triglav

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ilirija

L. Piskule 55'

11/26/2024

2. SNL · Round 16Športnega Centra Kranj Pomožnem Terenu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Triglav50%

×Draw24%

Ilirija26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TriglavExpected goals in this matchIlirija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.15

Triglav

1.69

Ilirija

1.15

Triglav creates 47% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 75 away

1.98

creates per match

1.17

1.12

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Triglav

1.98

Ilirija

1.17

allows per match

Triglav

1.12

Ilirija

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Triglav+0.00on par

Ilirija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triglav ↓

Ilirija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Triglav or draw

74%

Triglav or Ilirija

76%

Draw or Ilirija

50%

Winning margin

Triglav wins by 2+

27%

Ilirija wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Triglav 1+ goals

82%

Triglav 2+ goals

50%

Triglav 3+ goals

24%

Ilirija 1+ goals

68%

Ilirija 2+ goals

32%

Ilirija 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Triglav (draw refunded)

66%

Ilirija (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triglav at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Ilirija away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.40 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triglav attack 1.98 + Ilirija defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ilirija attack 1.17 + Triglav defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Triglav scores more

50%

level

24%

Ilirija scores more

26%

Triglav at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Brkić← I. Vidović

27'

L. Šušnjara← T. Vinogradac

49'

L. Škof← D. Zulić

55'

L. Piskule

82'

K. Dakić← O. Kregar

82'

U. Stojnić← T. Štricelj

Triglav

Ilirija

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

24'▲M. Brkić←▼I. Vidović

27'▲L. Šušnjara←▼T. Vinogradac

82'▲K. Dakić←▼O. Kregar

Triglav substitutes

BrkićŠušnjaraDakićFeferJemecKazićPoriLjubijankićRadosavljević

Manager: M. Kondić

49'▲L. Škof←▼D. Zulić

82'▲U. Stojnić←▼T. Štricelj

Ilirija substitutes

ŠkofStojnićBreclRistićLukežičCerkStojinovićZorkoMalnar