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Triglav vs Dravinja — 2. SNL 2019

Triglav
Triglav
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dravinja
Dravinja
4/11/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 23Stanko Mlakar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Triglav53%
×Draw23%
Dravinja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triglav
1.82
Dravinja
1.16

Triglav creates 57% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 45 away

creates per match

Triglav
1.98
Dravinja
1.20

allows per match

Triglav
1.12
Dravinja
1.67

finishing

Triglav+0.00on par
Dravinja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triglav ↓

Dravinja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Triglav or draw
76%
Triglav or Dravinja
77%
Draw or Dravinja
47%

Winning margin

Triglav wins by 2+
30%
Dravinja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Triglav 1+ goals
84%
Triglav 2+ goals
54%
Triglav 3+ goals
27%
Dravinja 1+ goals
69%
Dravinja 2+ goals
32%
Dravinja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Triglav (draw refunded)
68%
Dravinja (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triglav at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Dravinja away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triglav attack 1.98 + Dravinja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dravinja attack 1.20 + Triglav defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Triglav scores more
53%
level
23%
Dravinja scores more
24%

Triglav at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Triglav vs Dravinja

Triglav beat Dravinja 2-1 in 2. SNL on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stanko Mlakar Stadium in Kranj.