Trident 2–3 ZESCO United: Result & Stats

Trident

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ZESCO United

12/16/2023

Super League · Round 16Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident26%

×Draw30%

ZESCO United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TridentExpected goals in this matchZESCO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.18

Trident

0.83

ZESCO United

1.18

ZESCO United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

0.82

creates per match

1.00

1.35

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Trident

0.82

ZESCO United

1.00

allows per match

Trident

1.35

ZESCO United

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trident+0.00on par

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

ZESCO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Trident or draw

56%

Trident or ZESCO United

70%

Draw or ZESCO United

74%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+

8%

ZESCO United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals

56%

Trident 2+ goals

20%

Trident 3+ goals

5%

ZESCO United 1+ goals

69%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

33%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)

37%

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trident scores more

26%

level

30%

ZESCO United scores more

44%

ZESCO United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ZESCO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff