Trident 1–3 Nkwazi: Result & Stats | Super League

Trident

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Nkwazi

5/4/2024

Super League · Round 30Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident29%

×Draw31%

Nkwazi40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TridentExpected goals in this matchNkwazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.08

Trident

0.88

Nkwazi

1.08

Nkwazi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

0.82

creates per match

0.82

1.35

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Trident

0.82

Nkwazi

0.82

allows per match

Trident

1.35

Nkwazi

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trident+0.00on par

Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Nkwazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Trident or draw

60%

Trident or Nkwazi

69%

Draw or Nkwazi

71%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+

10%

Nkwazi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals

59%

Trident 2+ goals

22%

Trident 3+ goals

6%

Nkwazi 1+ goals

66%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

29%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)

42%

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trident scores more

29%

level

31%

Nkwazi scores more

40%

Nkwazi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff