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Trident vs Nkana — Super League 2019

Trident
Trident
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nkana
Nkana
3/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident31%
×Draw30%
Nkana38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trident
0.95
Nkana
1.08

Nkana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Trident
0.82
Nkana
0.82

allows per match

Trident
1.35
Nkana
1.07

finishing

Trident+0.00on par
Nkana+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Nkana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Trident or draw
62%
Trident or Nkana
70%
Draw or Nkana
69%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+
11%
Nkana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals
61%
Trident 2+ goals
25%
Trident 3+ goals
7%
Nkana 1+ goals
66%
Nkana 2+ goals
29%
Nkana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)
45%
Nkana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Nkana away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Nkana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nkana attack 0.82 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trident scores more
31%
level
30%
Nkana scores more
38%

Nkana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Trident 1–2 Nkana

Nkana beat Trident 2-1 in Super League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.