Trident 0–0 Mutondo Stars: Result & Stats

Trident

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mutondo Stars

9/23/2023

Super League · Round 5Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident33%

×Draw32%

Mutondo Stars34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TridentExpected goals in this matchMutondo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.94

Trident

0.92

Mutondo Stars

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.82

creates per match

0.53

1.35

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Trident

0.82

Mutondo Stars

0.53

allows per match

Trident

1.35

Mutondo Stars

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trident+0.00on par

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Mutondo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Trident or draw

66%

Trident or Mutondo Stars

68%

Draw or Mutondo Stars

67%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+

12%

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals

60%

Trident 2+ goals

23%

Trident 3+ goals

7%

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals

61%

Mutondo Stars 2+ goals

24%

Mutondo Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)

49%

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Mutondo Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Mutondo Stars defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Mutondo Stars attack 0.53 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Trident scores more

33%

level

32%

Mutondo Stars scores more

34%

Mutondo Stars at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mutondo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff