Trident 1–2 Mufulira Wanderers: Result & Stats

Trident

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mufulira Wanderers

11/4/2023

Super League · Round 10Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident36%

×Draw31%

Mufulira Wanderers32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TridentExpected goals in this matchMufulira Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.94

Trident

1.01

Mufulira Wanderers

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

0.82

creates per match

0.52

1.35

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Trident

0.82

Mufulira Wanderers

0.52

allows per match

Trident

1.35

Mufulira Wanderers

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trident+0.00on par

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Trident or draw

68%

Trident or Mufulira Wanderers

69%

Draw or Mufulira Wanderers

64%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+

14%

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals

64%

Trident 2+ goals

27%

Trident 3+ goals

8%

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals

61%

Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals

24%

Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)

53%

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Trident scores more

36%

level

31%

Mufulira Wanderers scores more

32%

Trident at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Trident will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff