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Trident vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Trident
Trident
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
10/7/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident29%
×Draw29%
Man Utd Zambia Academy41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trident
0.95
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.19

Man Utd Zambia Academy creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

creates per match

Trident
0.82
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Trident
1.35
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Trident+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Trident or draw
59%
Trident or Man Utd Zambia Academy
71%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
71%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+
10%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals
61%
Trident 2+ goals
25%
Trident 3+ goals
7%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
70%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
33%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)
41%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trident scores more
29%
level
29%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
41%

Man Utd Zambia Academy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Man Utd Zambia Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trident vs Man Utd Zambia Academy

Man Utd Zambia Academy beat Trident 1-0 in Super League on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.