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Trident vs Kansanshi Dynamos — Super League 2019

Trident
Trident
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kansanshi Dynamos
Kansanshi Dynamos
8/19/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trident33%
×Draw31%
Kansanshi Dynamos36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trident
0.96
Kansanshi Dynamos
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Trident
0.82
Kansanshi Dynamos
0.68

allows per match

Trident
1.35
Kansanshi Dynamos
1.10

finishing

Trident+0.00on par
Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trident ↓

Kansanshi Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Trident or draw
64%
Trident or Kansanshi Dynamos
69%
Draw or Kansanshi Dynamos
67%

Winning margin

Trident wins by 2+
12%
Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trident 1+ goals
62%
Trident 2+ goals
25%
Trident 3+ goals
7%
Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals
64%
Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals
27%
Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trident (draw refunded)
48%
Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trident at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Kansanshi Dynamos away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trident attack 0.82 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.68 + Trident defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Trident scores more
33%
level
31%
Kansanshi Dynamos scores more
36%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trident vs Kansanshi Dynamos

Trident and Kansanshi Dynamos drew 1-1 in Super League on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.