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Tricolore Gasperich vs Union Kayl-Tétange — Cup 2020

Tricolore Gasperich
Tricolore Gasperich
FT
1 – 3
Union Kayl-Tétange
Union Kayl-Tétange
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade Emile Bintner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tricolore Gasperich21%
×Draw17%
Union Kayl-Tétange62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tricolore Gasperich
1.73
Union Kayl-Tétange
2.94

Union Kayl-Tétange creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tricolore Gasperich
0.67
Union Kayl-Tétange
3.20

allows per match

Tricolore Gasperich
2.67
Union Kayl-Tétange
2.80

finishing

Tricolore Gasperich+0.00on par
Union Kayl-Tétange+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tricolore Gasperich ↓

Union Kayl-Tétange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Tricolore Gasperich or draw
38%
Tricolore Gasperich or Union Kayl-Tétange
83%
Draw or Union Kayl-Tétange
79%

Winning margin

Tricolore Gasperich wins by 2+
10%
Union Kayl-Tétange wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Tricolore Gasperich 1+ goals
82%
Tricolore Gasperich 2+ goals
52%
Tricolore Gasperich 3+ goals
25%
Union Kayl-Tétange 1+ goals
95%
Union Kayl-Tétange 2+ goals
79%
Union Kayl-Tétange 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Tricolore Gasperich (draw refunded)
26%
Union Kayl-Tétange (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tricolore Gasperich at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Union Kayl-Tétange away — creates 3.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tricolore Gasperich attack 0.67 + Union Kayl-Tétange defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Union Kayl-Tétange attack 3.20 + Tricolore Gasperich defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tricolore Gasperich scores more
21%
level
17%
Union Kayl-Tétange scores more
62%

Union Kayl-Tétange at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Union Kayl-Tétange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tricolore Gasperich vs Union Kayl-Tétange

Union Kayl-Tétange beat Tricolore Gasperich 3-1 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Emile Bintner in Gaasperech.