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Tricolore Gasperich vs Lorentzweiler — Cup 2020

Tricolore Gasperich
Tricolore Gasperich
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweileradvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tricolore Gasperich9%
×Draw14%
Lorentzweiler77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tricolore Gasperich
0.83
Lorentzweiler
2.73

Lorentzweiler creates 229% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tricolore Gasperich
0.67
Lorentzweiler
2.80

allows per match

Tricolore Gasperich
2.67
Lorentzweiler
1.00

finishing

Tricolore Gasperich+0.00on par
Lorentzweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tricolore Gasperich ↓

Lorentzweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tricolore Gasperich or draw
23%
Tricolore Gasperich or Lorentzweiler
86%
Draw or Lorentzweiler
91%

Winning margin

Tricolore Gasperich wins by 2+
3%
Lorentzweiler wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Tricolore Gasperich 1+ goals
56%
Tricolore Gasperich 2+ goals
20%
Tricolore Gasperich 3+ goals
5%
Lorentzweiler 1+ goals
93%
Lorentzweiler 2+ goals
75%
Lorentzweiler 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Tricolore Gasperich (draw refunded)
10%
Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tricolore Gasperich at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Lorentzweiler away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tricolore Gasperich attack 0.67 + Lorentzweiler defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Lorentzweiler attack 2.80 + Tricolore Gasperich defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Tricolore Gasperich scores more
9%
level
14%
Lorentzweiler scores more
77%

Lorentzweiler at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Lorentzweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tricolore Gasperich 0–1 Lorentzweiler

Lorentzweiler beat Tricolore Gasperich 1-0 in Cup on September 21, 2025.