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Tricolore Gasperich vs Feulen — Cup 2020

Tricolore Gasperich
Tricolore Gasperich
FT
1 – 2
Feulen
Feulen
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStade Emile Bintner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tricolore Gasperich14%
×Draw15%
Feulen71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tricolore Gasperich
1.24
Feulen
2.94

Feulen creates 137% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tricolore Gasperich
0.67
Feulen
3.20

allows per match

Tricolore Gasperich
2.67
Feulen
1.80

finishing

Tricolore Gasperich+0.00on par
Feulen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tricolore Gasperich ↓

Feulen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Tricolore Gasperich or draw
29%
Tricolore Gasperich or Feulen
85%
Draw or Feulen
86%

Winning margin

Tricolore Gasperich wins by 2+
5%
Feulen wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Tricolore Gasperich 1+ goals
71%
Tricolore Gasperich 2+ goals
35%
Tricolore Gasperich 3+ goals
13%
Feulen 1+ goals
95%
Feulen 2+ goals
79%
Feulen 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Tricolore Gasperich (draw refunded)
16%
Feulen (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tricolore Gasperich at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Feulen away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tricolore Gasperich attack 0.67 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Feulen attack 3.20 + Tricolore Gasperich defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tricolore Gasperich scores more
14%
level
15%
Feulen scores more
71%

Feulen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Feulen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tricolore Gasperich 1–2 Feulen

Feulen beat Tricolore Gasperich 2-1 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Emile Bintner in Gaasperech.