Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tricolore Gasperich vs Colmarberg — Cup 2020

Tricolore Gasperich
Tricolore Gasperich
FT
2 – 4
Colmarberg
Colmarberg
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStade Emile Bintner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tricolore Gasperich33%
×Draw18%
Colmarberg49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tricolore Gasperich
2.46
Colmarberg
2.96

Colmarberg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tricolore Gasperich
0.67
Colmarberg
3.25

allows per match

Tricolore Gasperich
2.67
Colmarberg
4.25

finishing

Tricolore Gasperich+0.00on par
Colmarberg+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tricolore Gasperich ↓

Colmarberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Tricolore Gasperich or draw
51%
Tricolore Gasperich or Colmarberg
82%
Draw or Colmarberg
67%

Winning margin

Tricolore Gasperich wins by 2+
19%
Colmarberg wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Tricolore Gasperich 1+ goals
91%
Tricolore Gasperich 2+ goals
70%
Tricolore Gasperich 3+ goals
44%
Colmarberg 1+ goals
95%
Colmarberg 2+ goals
79%
Colmarberg 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Tricolore Gasperich (draw refunded)
41%
Colmarberg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tricolore Gasperich at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Colmarberg away — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tricolore Gasperich attack 0.67 + Colmarberg defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Colmarberg attack 3.25 + Tricolore Gasperich defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tricolore Gasperich scores more
33%
level
18%
Colmarberg scores more
49%

Colmarberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colmarberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tricolore Gasperich 2–4 Colmarberg

Colmarberg beat Tricolore Gasperich 4-2 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Emile Bintner in Gaasperech.