Triangle United 4–0 Tenax: Result & Stats

Triangle United

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tenax

10/23/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 31Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Triangle United59%

×Draw25%

Tenax16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Triangle UnitedExpected goals in this matchTenax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.68

Triangle United

1.57

Tenax

0.68

Triangle United creates 131% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

0.47

0.89

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Triangle United

1.32

Tenax

0.47

allows per match

Triangle United

0.89

Tenax

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par

Tenax+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Tenax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw

84%

Triangle United or Tenax

75%

Draw or Tenax

41%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+

32%

Tenax wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals

79%

Triangle United 2+ goals

46%

Triangle United 3+ goals

21%

Tenax 1+ goals

49%

Tenax 2+ goals

15%

Tenax 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)

79%

Tenax (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Tenax away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Tenax defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tenax attack 0.47 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Triangle United scores more

59%

level

25%

Tenax scores more

16%

Triangle United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff