Triangle United 0–0 Sheasham: Result & Stats

Triangle United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheasham

5/28/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Triangle United50%

×Draw29%

Sheasham21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Triangle UnitedExpected goals in this matchSheasham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.74

Triangle United

1.31

Sheasham

0.74

Triangle United creates 77% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

0.59

0.89

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Triangle United

1.32

Sheasham

0.59

allows per match

Triangle United

0.89

Sheasham

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par

Sheasham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Sheasham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw

79%

Triangle United or Sheasham

71%

Draw or Sheasham

50%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+

24%

Sheasham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals

73%

Triangle United 2+ goals

38%

Triangle United 3+ goals

14%

Sheasham 1+ goals

52%

Sheasham 2+ goals

17%

Sheasham 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)

70%

Sheasham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Sheasham away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Sheasham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sheasham attack 0.59 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Triangle United scores more

50%

level

29%

Sheasham scores more

21%

Triangle United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff