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Triangle United vs Kwekwe United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Triangle United
Triangle United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
11/8/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Triangle United71%
×Draw19%
Kwekwe United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triangle United
2.04
Kwekwe United
0.62

Triangle United creates 229% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Triangle United
1.32
Kwekwe United
0.35

allows per match

Triangle United
0.89
Kwekwe United
2.76

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par
Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Kwekwe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw
90%
Triangle United or Kwekwe United
81%
Draw or Kwekwe United
29%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+
45%
Kwekwe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals
87%
Triangle United 2+ goals
60%
Triangle United 3+ goals
33%
Kwekwe United 1+ goals
46%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
13%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)
87%
Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Kwekwe United away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Kwekwe United defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kwekwe United attack 0.35 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Triangle United scores more
71%
level
19%
Kwekwe United scores more
10%

Triangle United at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Triangle United vs Kwekwe United

Triangle United beat Kwekwe United 4-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 8, 2025.