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Triangle United vs Hwange — Premier Soccer League 2026

Triangle United
Triangle United
FT
3 – 2
Hwange
Hwange
12/1/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 28Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Triangle United51%
×Draw28%
Hwange21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triangle United
1.35
Hwange
0.74

Triangle United creates 82% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 52 away

creates per match

Triangle United
1.32
Hwange
0.60

allows per match

Triangle United
0.89
Hwange
1.37

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par
Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Hwange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw
79%
Triangle United or Hwange
72%
Draw or Hwange
49%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+
25%
Hwange wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals
74%
Triangle United 2+ goals
39%
Triangle United 3+ goals
15%
Hwange 1+ goals
52%
Hwange 2+ goals
17%
Hwange 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)
71%
Hwange (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hwange attack 0.60 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Triangle United scores more
51%
level
28%
Hwange scores more
21%

Triangle United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Triangle United 3–2 Hwange

Triangle United beat Hwange 3-2 in Premier Soccer League on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.