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Triangle United vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Triangle United
Triangle United
FT
3 – 1
Harare City
Harare City
10/6/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 25Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Triangle United46%
×Draw29%
Harare City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triangle United
1.25
Harare City
0.84

Triangle United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 34 away

creates per match

Triangle United
1.32
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Triangle United
0.89
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw
75%
Triangle United or Harare City
71%
Draw or Harare City
54%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+
21%
Harare City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals
71%
Triangle United 2+ goals
36%
Triangle United 3+ goals
13%
Harare City 1+ goals
57%
Harare City 2+ goals
21%
Harare City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)
65%
Harare City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Harare City attack 0.79 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Triangle United scores more
46%
level
29%
Harare City scores more
25%

Triangle United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Triangle United 3–1 Harare City

Triangle United beat Harare City 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.