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Triangle United vs Chapungu United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Triangle United
Triangle United
FT
0 – 1
Chapungu United
Chapungu United
4/28/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Triangle United44%
×Draw32%
Chapungu United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triangle United
1.07
Chapungu United
0.71

Triangle United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Triangle United
1.32
Chapungu United
0.53

allows per match

Triangle United
0.89
Chapungu United
0.82

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par
Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Chapungu United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw
76%
Triangle United or Chapungu United
68%
Draw or Chapungu United
56%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+
18%
Chapungu United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals
66%
Triangle United 2+ goals
29%
Triangle United 3+ goals
9%
Chapungu United 1+ goals
51%
Chapungu United 2+ goals
16%
Chapungu United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)
64%
Chapungu United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Triangle United scores more
44%
level
32%
Chapungu United scores more
24%

Triangle United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Triangle United 0–1 Chapungu United

Chapungu United beat Triangle United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.