Triangle United 3–0 Bulawayo City: Result & Stats

Triangle United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bulawayo City

9/4/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 26Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Triangle United51%

×Draw30%

Bulawayo City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Triangle UnitedExpected goals in this matchBulawayo City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.64

Triangle United

1.23

Bulawayo City

0.64

Triangle United creates 92% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 16 away

1.32

creates per match

0.38

0.89

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Triangle United

1.32

Bulawayo City

0.38

allows per match

Triangle United

0.89

Bulawayo City

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par

Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Bulawayo City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw

81%

Triangle United or Bulawayo City

70%

Draw or Bulawayo City

49%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+

23%

Bulawayo City wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals

71%

Triangle United 2+ goals

35%

Triangle United 3+ goals

13%

Bulawayo City 1+ goals

47%

Bulawayo City 2+ goals

14%

Bulawayo City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)

72%

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Bulawayo City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bulawayo City attack 0.38 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Triangle United scores more

51%

level

30%

Bulawayo City scores more

19%

Triangle United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff