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Triangle United vs Black Rhinos — Premier Soccer League 2026

Triangle United
Triangle United
FT
1 – 2
Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
9/8/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Triangle United45%
×Draw30%
Black Rhinos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Triangle United
1.17
Black Rhinos
0.78

Triangle United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 51 away

creates per match

Triangle United
1.32
Black Rhinos
0.67

allows per match

Triangle United
0.89
Black Rhinos
1.02

finishing

Triangle United+0.00on par
Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Triangle United ↓

Black Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Triangle United or draw
75%
Triangle United or Black Rhinos
70%
Draw or Black Rhinos
55%

Winning margin

Triangle United wins by 2+
19%
Black Rhinos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Triangle United 1+ goals
69%
Triangle United 2+ goals
33%
Triangle United 3+ goals
11%
Black Rhinos 1+ goals
54%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
18%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Triangle United (draw refunded)
65%
Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Triangle United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Triangle United attack 1.32 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Triangle United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Triangle United scores more
45%
level
30%
Black Rhinos scores more
25%

Triangle United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Triangle United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Triangle United vs Black Rhinos

Black Rhinos beat Triangle United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Gibbo Stadium in Triangle.