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Tri-Cities vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
7/2/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 57TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities33%
×Draw23%
Tormenta II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.54
Tormenta II
1.83

Tormenta II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
55%
Tri-Cities or Tormenta II
77%
Draw or Tormenta II
67%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
15%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
79%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
45%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
20%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
84%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
54%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
42%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
33%
level
23%
Tormenta II scores more
45%

Tormenta II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tri-Cities vs Tormenta II

Tri-Cities beat Tormenta II 1-0 in USL League Two on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.