Tri-Cities 2–0 Southern Soccer Academy

Tri-Cities

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southern Soccer Academy

7/6/2022

USL League Two · Round 61TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities47%

×Draw23%

Southern Soccer Academy30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tri-CitiesExpected goals in this matchSouthern Soccer Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.44

Tri-Cities

1.84

Southern Soccer Academy

1.44

Tri-Cities creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

1.82

creates per match

1.35

1.53

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Tri-Cities

1.82

Southern Soccer Academy

1.35

allows per match

Tri-Cities

1.53

Southern Soccer Academy

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Southern Soccer Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw

70%

Tri-Cities or Southern Soccer Academy

77%

Draw or Southern Soccer Academy

53%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+

26%

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals

84%

Tri-Cities 2+ goals

55%

Tri-Cities 3+ goals

28%

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals

76%

Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals

42%

Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)

61%

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Southern Soccer Academy away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.35 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tri-Cities scores more

47%

level

23%

Southern Soccer Academy scores more

30%

Tri-Cities at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tri-Cities 2–0 Southern Soccer Academy

Tri-Cities beat Southern Soccer Academy 2-0 in USL League Two on July 6, 2022.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.

Tri-Cities vs Southern Soccer Academy — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Tri-Cities 2–0 Southern Soccer Academy