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Tri-Cities vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
7/8/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 64TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities48%
×Draw23%
Dalton Red Wolves29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.85
Dalton Red Wolves
1.41

Tri-Cities creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
71%
Tri-Cities or Dalton Red Wolves
77%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
52%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
26%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
84%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
55%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
28%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
76%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
41%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
62%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
48%
level
23%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
29%

Tri-Cities at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tri-Cities 1 – 0 Dalton Red Wolves

Tri-Cities beat Dalton Red Wolves 1-0 in USL League Two on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.