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Tri-Cities vs Asheville City — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
FT
0 – 2
Asheville City
Asheville City
6/1/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 21TVA Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities29%
×Draw23%
Asheville City49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.39
Asheville City
1.87

Asheville City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
Asheville City
2.21

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
Asheville City
0.95

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
Asheville City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Asheville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
51%
Tri-Cities or Asheville City
77%
Draw or Asheville City
71%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
13%
Asheville City wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
75%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
40%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
16%
Asheville City 1+ goals
85%
Asheville City 2+ goals
56%
Asheville City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
37%
Asheville City (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Asheville City away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Asheville City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Asheville City attack 2.21 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
29%
level
23%
Asheville City scores more
49%

Asheville City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tri-Cities vs Asheville City

Asheville City beat Tri-Cities 2-0 in USL League Two on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at TVA Credit Union Park in Johnson City, Tennessee.