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Treze vs Santa Rita — Serie D 2018

Treze
Treze
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
4/29/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Presidente Vargas (Campina Grande, Paraíba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Treze69%
×Draw21%
Santa Rita10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treze
1.86
Santa Rita
0.56

Treze creates 232% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 3 away

creates per match

Treze
1.39
Santa Rita
0.33

allows per match

Treze
0.78
Santa Rita
2.33

finishing

Treze+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treze ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Treze or draw
90%
Treze or Santa Rita
79%
Draw or Santa Rita
31%

Winning margin

Treze wins by 2+
42%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Treze 1+ goals
84%
Treze 2+ goals
55%
Treze 3+ goals
28%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
43%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
11%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Treze (draw refunded)
87%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treze at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treze attack 1.39 + Santa Rita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Santa Rita attack 0.33 + Treze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Treze scores more
69%
level
21%
Santa Rita scores more
10%

Treze at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Treze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treze vs Santa Rita

Treze beat Santa Rita 4-0 in Serie D on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Presidente Vargas (Campina Grande, Paraíba).