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Treze vs CRB — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Treze
Treze
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CRB
CRB
2/15/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 3Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Treze40%
×Draw31%
CRB29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treze
1.06
CRB
0.86

Treze creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Treze
0.78
CRB
0.72

allows per match

Treze
1.00
CRB
1.34

finishing

Treze+0.00on par
CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treze ↓

CRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Treze or draw
71%
Treze or CRB
69%
Draw or CRB
60%

Winning margin

Treze wins by 2+
16%
CRB wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Treze 1+ goals
65%
Treze 2+ goals
29%
Treze 3+ goals
9%
CRB 1+ goals
58%
CRB 2+ goals
21%
CRB 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Treze (draw refunded)
58%
CRB (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treze at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

CRB away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treze attack 0.78 + CRB defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

CRB attack 0.72 + Treze defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Treze scores more
40%
level
31%
CRB scores more
29%

Treze at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Treze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treze vs CRB

Treze and CRB drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Ernani Sátyro in Campina Grande, Paraíba.