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Treviso vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Treviso
Treviso
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
Y. G. Gnago 72'
D. Simonetta 43'
F. Meola 26'
L. Raggio 22'
3/10/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Stadio Omobono Tenni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Treviso66%
×Draw22%
Mori Santo Stefano12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treviso
1.85
Mori Santo Stefano
0.65

Treviso creates 185% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Treviso
1.47
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Treviso
0.77
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Treviso+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treviso ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Treviso or draw
88%
Treviso or Mori Santo Stefano
78%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
34%

Winning margin

Treviso wins by 2+
40%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Treviso 1+ goals
84%
Treviso 2+ goals
55%
Treviso 3+ goals
28%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
48%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
14%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Treviso (draw refunded)
84%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treviso at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treviso attack 1.47 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Treviso defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Treviso scores more
66%
level
22%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
12%

Treviso at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
L. Raggio
26'
F. Meola
43'
D. Simonetta
72'
Y. G. Gnago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Treviso 4–0 Mori Santo Stefano

Treviso beat Mori Santo Stefano 4-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 10, 2024.

Goals: L. Raggio (22'), F. Meola (26'), D. Simonetta (43'), Y. G. Gnago (72').

The match was played at Stadio Omobono Tenni in Treviso.