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Treviso vs Lavis — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Treviso
Treviso
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Lavis
Lavis
10/6/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Stadio Omobono Tenni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Treviso71%
×Draw18%
Lavis11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treviso
2.15
Lavis
0.70

Treviso creates 207% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

Treviso
1.47
Lavis
0.63

allows per match

Treviso
0.77
Lavis
2.84

finishing

Treviso+0.00on par
Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treviso ↓

Lavis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Treviso or draw
89%
Treviso or Lavis
82%
Draw or Lavis
29%

Winning margin

Treviso wins by 2+
46%
Lavis wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Treviso 1+ goals
88%
Treviso 2+ goals
63%
Treviso 3+ goals
36%
Lavis 1+ goals
50%
Lavis 2+ goals
16%
Lavis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Treviso (draw refunded)
87%
Lavis (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treviso at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treviso attack 1.47 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lavis attack 0.63 + Treviso defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Treviso scores more
71%
level
18%
Lavis scores more
11%

Treviso at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treviso vs Lavis

Treviso beat Lavis 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Omobono Tenni in Treviso.