Treviso 2–0 Brusaporto: Result & Stats

Treviso

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brusaporto

T. Farabegoli 80'

G. Aliu 70'

9/8/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Stadio Omobono Tenni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Treviso43%

×Draw31%

Brusaporto27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrevisoExpected goals in this matchBrusaporto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.83

Treviso

1.13

Brusaporto

0.83

Treviso creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

1.47

creates per match

0.89

0.77

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Treviso

1.47

Brusaporto

0.89

allows per match

Treviso

0.77

Brusaporto

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treviso+0.00on par

Brusaporto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treviso ↓

Brusaporto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Treviso or draw

73%

Treviso or Brusaporto

69%

Draw or Brusaporto

57%

Winning margin

Treviso wins by 2+

18%

Brusaporto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Treviso 1+ goals

68%

Treviso 2+ goals

31%

Treviso 3+ goals

11%

Brusaporto 1+ goals

56%

Brusaporto 2+ goals

20%

Brusaporto 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Treviso (draw refunded)

61%

Brusaporto (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treviso at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Brusaporto away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treviso attack 1.47 + Brusaporto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.13

Brusaporto attack 0.89 + Treviso defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Treviso scores more

43%

level

31%

Brusaporto scores more

27%

Treviso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

G. Aliu

80'

T. Farabegoli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff