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Treviso vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Treviso
Treviso
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
2/1/2026Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Treviso44%
×Draw30%
Bassano Virtus26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treviso
1.20
Bassano Virtus
0.84

Treviso creates 43% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Treviso
1.47
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Treviso
0.77
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Treviso+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treviso ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Treviso or draw
74%
Treviso or Bassano Virtus
70%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
56%

Winning margin

Treviso wins by 2+
19%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Treviso 1+ goals
70%
Treviso 2+ goals
34%
Treviso 3+ goals
12%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
57%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
21%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Treviso (draw refunded)
63%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treviso at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treviso attack 1.47 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.20

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Treviso defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Treviso scores more
44%
level
30%
Bassano Virtus scores more
26%

Treviso at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Treviso 0–0 Bassano Virtus

Treviso and Bassano Virtus drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 1, 2026.