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Treviso vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Treviso
Treviso
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
12/16/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Stadio Omobono Tenni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Treviso53%
×Draw25%
Atletico Castegnato22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treviso
1.59
Atletico Castegnato
0.92

Treviso creates 73% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Treviso
1.47
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Treviso
0.77
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Treviso+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treviso ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Treviso or draw
78%
Treviso or Atletico Castegnato
75%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
47%

Winning margin

Treviso wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Treviso 1+ goals
80%
Treviso 2+ goals
47%
Treviso 3+ goals
21%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
60%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
23%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Treviso (draw refunded)
71%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treviso at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treviso attack 1.47 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Treviso defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Treviso scores more
53%
level
25%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
22%

Treviso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Treviso 4–0 Atletico Castegnato

Treviso beat Atletico Castegnato 4-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Omobono Tenni in Treviso.