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Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Trethomas Bluebirds
Trethomas Bluebirds
Preview
18:45
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
8/14/2026League #111League #111 · South - 3
40%
Trethomas Bluebirds
model favours
40%21%39%

Caerau (Ely) score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trethomas Bluebirds40%
×Draw21%
Caerau (Ely)39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trethomas Bluebirds
1.95
Caerau (Ely)
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Trethomas Bluebirds
2.25
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Trethomas Bluebirds+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trethomas Bluebirds ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Trethomas Bluebirds or draw
61%
Trethomas Bluebirds or Caerau (Ely)
79%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
60%

Winning margin

Trethomas Bluebirds wins by 2+
21%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Trethomas Bluebirds 1+ goals
86%
Trethomas Bluebirds 2+ goals
58%
Trethomas Bluebirds 3+ goals
31%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
85%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
57%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Trethomas Bluebirds (draw refunded)
50%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trethomas Bluebirds at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trethomas Bluebirds attack 2.00 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Trethomas Bluebirds defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trethomas Bluebirds scores more
40%
level
21%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
39%

Trethomas Bluebirds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trethomas Bluebirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Trethomas Bluebirds sit 25, Caerau (Ely) 2 in the table
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bluebirds
LLLLL
(Ely)
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Trethomas Bluebirds host Caerau (Ely)

August 14, 2026: Trethomas Bluebirds take on Caerau (Ely) in League #111. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.