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Caerau (Ely) vs Trethomas Bluebirds — League #111 2026

Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Trethomas Bluebirds
Trethomas Bluebirds
D. Griffiths 51'
J. Thomas 66'
8/8/2025League #111League #111 · South - 2Cwrt-yr-Ala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Caerau (Ely)53%
×Draw24%
Trethomas Bluebirds23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caerau (Ely)
1.70
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.03

Caerau (Ely) creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.79
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.60

allows per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.47
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.60

finishing

Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par
Trethomas Bluebirds+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caerau (Ely) ↓

Trethomas Bluebirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Caerau (Ely) or draw
77%
Caerau (Ely) or Trethomas Bluebirds
76%
Draw or Trethomas Bluebirds
47%

Winning margin

Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
29%
Trethomas Bluebirds wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
82%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
51%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
24%
Trethomas Bluebirds 1+ goals
64%
Trethomas Bluebirds 2+ goals
28%
Trethomas Bluebirds 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
70%
Trethomas Bluebirds (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caerau (Ely) at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Trethomas Bluebirds away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.79 + Trethomas Bluebirds defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Trethomas Bluebirds attack 0.60 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Caerau (Ely) scores more
53%
level
24%
Trethomas Bluebirds scores more
23%

Caerau (Ely) at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caerau (Ely) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
D. Griffiths
58'
D. Griffiths
58'
D. Griffiths
66'
J. Thomas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Caerau (Ely) 1 – 1 Trethomas Bluebirds

Caerau (Ely) and Trethomas Bluebirds drew 1-1 in League #111 on August 8, 2025.

Goals: D. Griffiths (51'), J. Thomas (66').

The match was played at Cwrt-yr-Ala in Cardiff (Caerdydd).