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Tres Coracoes U20 vs Santarritense U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Tres Coracoes U20
Tres Coracoes U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
Unknown 90+5', 81', 47', 23'
6/15/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Elias Arbex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tres Coracoes U2059%
×Draw23%
Santarritense U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Coracoes U20
1.78
Santarritense U20
0.85

Tres Coracoes U20 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tres Coracoes U20
0.86
Santarritense U20
0.14

allows per match

Tres Coracoes U20
1.57
Santarritense U20
2.71

finishing

Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par
Santarritense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Coracoes U20 ↓

Santarritense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tres Coracoes U20 or draw
82%
Tres Coracoes U20 or Santarritense U20
77%
Draw or Santarritense U20
41%

Winning margin

Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+
34%
Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals
83%
Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals
53%
Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals
26%
Santarritense U20 1+ goals
57%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
21%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)
77%
Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Coracoes U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Santarritense U20 away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 0.86 + Santarritense U20 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Santarritense U20 attack 0.14 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tres Coracoes U20 scores more
59%
level
23%
Santarritense U20 scores more
18%

Tres Coracoes U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tres Coracoes U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
47'
81'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tres Coracoes U20 vs Santarritense U20

Tres Coracoes U20 beat Santarritense U20 4-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: ? (23', 47', 81', 90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Elias Arbex in Três Corações, Minas Gerais.