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Tres Coracoes U20 vs Cruzeiro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Tres Coracoes U20
Tres Coracoes U20
FT
1 – 4
Cruzeiro U20
Cruzeiro U20
7/7/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Municipal Silvestre Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tres Coracoes U2023%
×Draw23%
Cruzeiro U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Coracoes U20
1.10
Cruzeiro U20
1.83

Cruzeiro U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tres Coracoes U20
0.86
Cruzeiro U20
2.09

allows per match

Tres Coracoes U20
1.57
Cruzeiro U20
1.35

finishing

Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Coracoes U20 ↓

Cruzeiro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tres Coracoes U20 or draw
46%
Tres Coracoes U20 or Cruzeiro U20
77%
Draw or Cruzeiro U20
77%

Winning margin

Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+
9%
Cruzeiro U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals
67%
Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals
30%
Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals
10%
Cruzeiro U20 1+ goals
84%
Cruzeiro U20 2+ goals
54%
Cruzeiro U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Cruzeiro U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Coracoes U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Cruzeiro U20 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 0.86 + Cruzeiro U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cruzeiro U20 attack 2.09 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tres Coracoes U20 scores more
23%
level
23%
Cruzeiro U20 scores more
54%

Cruzeiro U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cruzeiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Tres Coracoes U20 1–4 Cruzeiro U20

Cruzeiro U20 beat Tres Coracoes U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Silvestre Teixeira in Candeias, Minas Gerais.