Tres Coracoes U20 0–0 Contagem U20: Result & Stats

Tres Coracoes U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Contagem U20

5/25/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Elias Arbex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tres Coracoes U2034%

×Draw29%

Contagem U2037%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres Coracoes U20Expected goals in this matchContagem U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.12

Tres Coracoes U20

1.05

Contagem U20

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

0.86

creates per match

0.67

1.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Tres Coracoes U20

0.86

Contagem U20

0.67

allows per match

Tres Coracoes U20

1.57

Contagem U20

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Contagem U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Coracoes U20 ↓

Contagem U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tres Coracoes U20 or draw

63%

Tres Coracoes U20 or Contagem U20

71%

Draw or Contagem U20

66%

Winning margin

Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+

13%

Contagem U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals

65%

Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals

28%

Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals

9%

Contagem U20 1+ goals

67%

Contagem U20 2+ goals

31%

Contagem U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Coracoes U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Contagem U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 0.86 + Contagem U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Contagem U20 attack 0.67 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tres Coracoes U20 scores more

34%

level

29%

Contagem U20 scores more

37%

Contagem U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff