Tres Cantos 1–2 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid III

Silvano Nater 90'

David Ruiz 60'

Borja Alonso 16'

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tres Cantos31%

×Draw28%

Real Madrid III41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.27

Tres Cantos

1.06

Real Madrid III

1.27

Real Madrid III creates 20% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.35

1.20

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

59%

Tres Cantos or Real Madrid III

72%

Draw or Real Madrid III

69%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

12%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

65%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

29%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

36%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

43%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

31%

level

28%

Real Madrid III scores more

41%

Real Madrid III at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Borja Alonso

54'

Ángel Carvajal← Loren Zúñiga

60'

David Ruiz

61'

N. Arkine← Rubén Bas

61'

Rubén Lozano← Mohamed Belouafi

74'

Silvano Nater← A. Arkine

74'

Dani Martínez← Capi

75'

Mario Rivas← David Jiménez

80'

Fuster← Álvaro

83'

Fer Rodríguez← David Ruiz

83'

Yeray Lancha← Andrés Campos

90'

Silvano Nater

Tres

Real

González

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Muñoz

61'▲N. Arkine←▼Rubén Bas

61'▲Rubén Lozano←▼Mohamed Belouafi

74'▲Silvano Nater←▼A. Arkine

74'▲Dani Martínez←▼Capi

80'▲Fuster←▼Álvaro

Tres Cantos substitutes

ArkineLozanoNaterMartínezFuster

Manager: Pau Quesada

54'▲Ángel Carvajal←▼Loren Zúñiga

75'▲Mario Rivas←▼David Jiménez

83'▲Fer Rodríguez←▼David Ruiz

83'▲Yeray Lancha←▼Andrés Campos

Real Madrid III substitutes

CarvajalRivasRodríguezLancha

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 1–2 Real Madrid III

Real Madrid III beat Tres Cantos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: Borja Alonso (16'), David Ruiz (60'), Silvano Nater (90').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.

Tres Cantos vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 1–2 Real Madrid III