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Tres Cantos vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leganés II
Leganés II
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tres Cantos33%
×Draw25%
Leganés II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Cantos
1.33
Leganés II
1.54

Leganés II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 79 away

creates per match

Tres Cantos
1.35
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Tres Cantos
1.20
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw
58%
Tres Cantos or Leganés II
75%
Draw or Leganés II
67%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+
14%
Leganés II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals
74%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
38%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
15%
Leganés II 1+ goals
79%
Leganés II 2+ goals
45%
Leganés II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
44%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tres Cantos scores more
33%
level
25%
Leganés II scores more
42%

Leganés II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs Leganés II

Tres Cantos beat Leganés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.